DDM Analysis: 000778.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.46 - $0.63	$0.55
Multi-Stage	$1.26 - $1.40	$1.33
Blended Fair Value	$0.94
Current Price	$3.85
Upside	-75.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.91%	-6.15%	0.17	0.25	0.26	0.30	0.30	0.35	0.32	0.24	0.26	0.34
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.07%	-4.39%	-12.71%	-1.16%	-13.13%	8.36%	32.26%	-5.56%	-24.18%	3.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.01%	6.27%	6.43%	5.94%	7.47%	10.05%	6.07%	4.89%	4.70%	6.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	383.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	232.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	150.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	76.68	47.93	28.76
Cash Retained (M)	150.46	150.46	150.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-76.68	-47.93	-28.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	73.78	102.54	121.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,971.18	3,971.18	3,971.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-8.15%	-7.15%	-6.15%
Fair Value	$0.46	$0.55	$0.63
Upside / Downside	-87.96%	-85.75%	-83.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	383.41	355.98	330.52	306.88	284.92	264.54	272.48
Payout Ratio	60.76%	66.61%	72.45%	78.30%	84.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	232.95	237.10	239.47	240.29	239.77	238.09	252.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-8.15%	-7.15%	-6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	218.90	221.28	223.67
Year 2 PV (M)	204.12	208.59	213.10
Year 3 PV (M)	189.09	195.33	201.71
Year 4 PV (M)	174.19	181.90	189.87
Year 5 PV (M)	159.69	168.58	177.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,074.89	4,301.60	4,538.29
Equity Value (M)	5,020.88	5,277.29	5,544.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,971.18	3,971.18	3,971.18
Fair Value	$1.26	$1.33	$1.40
Upside / Downside	-67.16%	-65.48%	-63.74%

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Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co., Ltd. (000778.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener