DDM Analysis: 000758.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.09 - $1.45	$1.28
Multi-Stage	$2.19 - $2.42	$2.30
Blended Fair Value	$1.79
Current Price	$6.78
Upside	-73.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.79%	-9.91%	0.06	0.09	0.09	0.12	0.14	0.14	0.22	0.26	0.22	0.21
YoY Growth	-	-	-33.99%	6.52%	-27.08%	-12.28%	-0.10%	-37.09%	-15.92%	19.06%	2.98%	20.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.22%	1.91%	1.59%	2.58%	2.58%	3.04%	4.22%	4.46%	2.46%	3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	546.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	181.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	365.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	109.31	68.32	40.99
Cash Retained (M)	365.23	365.23	365.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-109.31	-68.32	-40.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	255.92	296.91	324.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,013.20	2,013.20	2,013.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.23%	9.23%	9.23%
Growth Rate	-8.90%	-7.90%	-6.90%
Fair Value	$1.09	$1.28	$1.45
Upside / Downside	-83.91%	-81.16%	-78.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	546.53	503.37	463.62	427.00	393.28	362.22	373.09
Payout Ratio	33.17%	44.54%	55.90%	67.27%	78.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	181.30	224.20	259.18	287.24	309.26	326.00	345.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.23%	9.23%	9.23%
Growth Rate	-8.90%	-7.90%	-6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	203.01	205.24	207.47
Year 2 PV (M)	212.52	217.21	221.96
Year 3 PV (M)	213.28	220.38	227.64
Year 4 PV (M)	207.93	217.21	226.80
Year 5 PV (M)	198.48	209.62	221.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,370.30	3,559.38	3,756.85
Equity Value (M)	4,405.53	4,629.04	4,861.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,013.20	2,013.20	2,013.20
Fair Value	$2.19	$2.30	$2.42
Upside / Downside	-67.72%	-66.09%	-64.38%

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China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co.,Ltd. (000758.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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