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Definitive Analysis

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Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai (000651.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.00 - $170.08$121.59
Multi-Stage$138.57 - $152.29$145.30
Blended Fair Value$133.44
Current Price$39.72
Upside235.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.79%12.44%2.732.483.343.032.502.380.162.011.661.73
YoY Growth--10.20%-25.62%9.95%21.18%5.05%1,425.00%-92.24%21.15%-3.62%103.70%
Dividend Yield--6.02%6.19%9.08%9.40%3.99%4.57%0.33%4.30%5.25%8.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31,685.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,732.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,952.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,337.003,960.632,376.38
Cash Retained (M)24,952.1724,952.1724,952.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,337.00-3,960.63-2,376.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,615.1720,991.5522,575.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,520.365,520.365,520.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.373.804.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.373.804.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.595.025.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate1.22%2.22%3.22%
Fair Value$89.00$121.59$170.08
Upside / Downside124.07%206.12%328.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31,685.0132,389.2033,109.0333,844.8634,597.0535,365.9636,426.93
Payout Ratio21.25%35.00%48.75%62.50%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,732.8411,336.0316,140.5121,152.9426,380.2031,829.3633,694.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate1.22%2.22%3.22%
Year 1 PV (M)10,545.5210,649.7010,753.88
Year 2 PV (M)13,967.8914,245.2414,525.31
Year 3 PV (M)17,029.0817,538.7918,058.56
Year 4 PV (M)19,756.2920,548.6421,364.59
Year 5 PV (M)22,174.9123,292.1324,453.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)681,484.62715,819.07751,523.64
Equity Value (M)764,958.31802,093.56840,679.91
Shares Outstanding (M)5,520.365,520.365,520.36
Fair Value$138.57$145.30$152.29
Upside / Downside248.87%265.80%283.40%

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