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Definitive Analysis

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CNPC Capital Company Limited (000617.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.63 - $11.23$7.82
Multi-Stage$9.05 - $9.93$9.48
Blended Fair Value$8.65
Current Price$10.50
Upside-17.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.13%50.56%0.220.260.280.340.360.410.370.140.000.27
YoY Growth---17.30%-8.18%-16.30%-5.94%-12.39%10.41%166.88%4,914.46%-98.96%7,353.64%
Dividend Yield--3.38%4.54%4.07%6.65%4.49%5.92%3.65%1.46%0.02%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,306.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,396.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,910.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)861.39538.37323.02
Cash Retained (M)1,910.201,910.201,910.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-861.39-538.37-323.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,048.811,371.831,587.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,665.2512,665.2512,665.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$5.63$7.82$11.23
Upside / Downside-46.36%-25.54%6.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,306.944,407.374,510.134,615.294,722.904,833.034,978.02
Payout Ratio55.65%62.52%69.39%76.26%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,396.752,755.433,129.543,519.593,926.144,349.724,604.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)2,568.582,593.922,619.27
Year 2 PV (M)2,719.482,773.422,827.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,851.022,936.273,023.19
Year 4 PV (M)2,964.673,083.443,205.75
Year 5 PV (M)3,061.793,215.883,376.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,461.22105,517.08110,774.48
Equity Value (M)114,626.76120,120.01125,826.69
Shares Outstanding (M)12,665.2512,665.2512,665.25
Fair Value$9.05$9.48$9.93
Upside / Downside-13.80%-9.67%-5.38%

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