DDM Analysis: 000538.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$237.24 - $578.38	$542.02
Multi-Stage	$87.06 - $95.14	$91.03
Blended Fair Value	$316.53
Current Price	$56.75
Upside	457.76%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.35%	32.30%	3.32	1.54	1.18	2.76	2.19	1.49	0.11	0.52	0.39	0.33
YoY Growth	-	-	116.31%	29.95%	-57.19%	26.36%	46.35%	1,201.69%	-77.96%	34.57%	19.03%	60.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.85%	3.03%	2.16%	4.73%	2.54%	2.44%	0.18%	0.74%	0.64%	0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,199.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,402.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	796.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,039.96	649.98	389.99
Cash Retained (M)	796.98	796.98	796.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,039.96	-649.98	-389.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-242.98	147.01	407.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,787.95	1,787.95	1,787.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.14	0.08	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	2.46	2.46	2.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.14	0.08	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.33	2.54	2.69
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$237.24	$542.02	$578.38
Upside / Downside	318.04%	855.11%	919.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,199.81	5,537.79	5,897.75	6,281.11	6,689.38	7,124.19	7,337.91
Payout Ratio	84.67%	85.74%	86.80%	87.87%	88.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,402.83	4,748.01	5,119.47	5,519.15	5,949.17	6,411.77	6,787.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,414.93	4,456.78	4,498.62
Year 2 PV (M)	4,426.38	4,510.69	4,595.80
Year 3 PV (M)	4,437.19	4,564.57	4,694.36
Year 4 PV (M)	4,447.38	4,618.41	4,794.33
Year 5 PV (M)	4,456.95	4,672.22	4,895.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133,483.67	139,930.98	146,625.04
Equity Value (M)	155,666.50	162,753.65	170,103.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,787.95	1,787.95	1,787.95
Fair Value	$87.06	$91.03	$95.14
Upside / Downside	53.42%	60.40%	67.65%

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Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (000538.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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