DDM Analysis: 000417.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.05 - $1.44	$1.24
Multi-Stage	$1.95 - $2.15	$2.05
Blended Fair Value	$1.65
Current Price	$5.92
Upside	-72.20%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.60%	-3.43%	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.14	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	5.57%	4.77%	4.17%	-16.49%	-33.69%	1.85%	4.26%	36.25%	-27.84%	5.91%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.38%	2.72%	2.33%	2.54%	3.04%	4.16%	3.72%	2.66%	1.63%	2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	154.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	139.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.82	19.26	11.56
Cash Retained (M)	139.28	139.28	139.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.82	-19.26	-11.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	108.47	120.02	127.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	779.85	779.85	779.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.16	0.17	0.18
WACC / Discount Rate	8.84%	8.84%	8.84%
Growth Rate	-5.43%	-4.43%	-3.43%
Fair Value	$1.05	$1.24	$1.44
Upside / Downside	-82.31%	-78.97%	-75.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	154.08	147.26	140.73	134.50	128.54	122.85	126.53
Payout Ratio	9.60%	25.68%	41.76%	57.84%	73.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14.80	37.82	58.77	77.80	95.02	110.56	117.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.84%	8.84%	8.84%
Growth Rate	-5.43%	-4.43%	-3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.38	34.75	35.11
Year 2 PV (M)	48.58	49.61	50.66
Year 3 PV (M)	58.46	60.34	62.25
Year 4 PV (M)	64.92	67.71	70.58
Year 5 PV (M)	68.67	72.38	76.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,244.39	1,311.59	1,381.66
Equity Value (M)	1,519.40	1,596.37	1,676.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	779.85	779.85	779.85
Fair Value	$1.95	$2.05	$2.15
Upside / Downside	-67.09%	-65.42%	-63.69%

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DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
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Hefei Department Store Group Co.,Ltd (000417.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener