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Definitive Analysis

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Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. (000166.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.45 - $7.40$5.76
Multi-Stage$7.84 - $8.62$8.22
Blended Fair Value$6.99
Current Price$5.33
Upside31.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.43%-4.73%0.040.240.360.340.280.210.170.170.190.05
YoY Growth---83.58%-33.10%4.50%22.50%33.53%21.53%3.39%-11.91%303.59%-26.61%
Dividend Yield--0.79%5.25%8.53%7.77%5.99%4.72%3.04%3.33%3.03%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,376.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,853.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,523.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,875.391,172.12703.27
Cash Retained (M)5,523.145,523.145,523.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,875.39-1,172.12-703.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,647.764,351.034,819.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,489.7124,489.7124,489.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Fair Value$4.45$5.76$7.40
Upside / Downside-16.46%7.98%38.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,376.949,470.179,564.329,659.419,755.449,852.4310,148.01
Payout Ratio41.10%50.88%60.66%70.44%80.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,853.804,818.325,801.646,804.047,825.798,867.199,386.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)4,463.804,508.444,553.08
Year 2 PV (M)4,979.315,079.405,180.48
Year 3 PV (M)5,409.965,573.905,741.11
Year 4 PV (M)5,764.545,998.626,239.75
Year 5 PV (M)6,051.066,359.756,680.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,381.50173,818.11182,595.57
Equity Value (M)192,050.17201,338.21210,990.90
Shares Outstanding (M)24,489.7124,489.7124,489.71
Fair Value$7.84$8.22$8.62
Upside / Downside47.13%54.25%61.64%

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