DDM Analysis: 000021.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.50 - $114.06	$38.84
Multi-Stage	$12.98 - $14.18	$13.57
Blended Fair Value	$26.21
Current Price	$27.87
Upside	-5.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.48%	20.06%	0.29	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.06	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	125.55%	-13.33%	-6.25%	182.86%	-40.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.57%	0.92%	0.89%	1.41%	0.29%	0.55%	0.48%	0.54%	0.51%	0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,024.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	369.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	654.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	204.94	128.09	76.85
Cash Retained (M)	654.72	654.72	654.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-204.94	-128.09	-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	449.78	526.64	577.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,565.00	1,565.00	1,565.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.52	0.57	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	8.07%	8.07%	8.07%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$21.50	$38.84	$114.06
Upside / Downside	-22.87%	39.37%	309.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,024.70	1,091.30	1,162.24	1,237.78	1,318.24	1,403.92	1,446.04
Payout Ratio	36.11%	46.88%	57.66%	68.44%	79.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	369.97	511.65	670.19	847.17	1,044.32	1,263.53	1,337.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.07%	8.07%	8.07%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	469.00	473.44	477.89
Year 2 PV (M)	563.10	573.82	584.65
Year 3 PV (M)	652.46	671.19	690.27
Year 4 PV (M)	737.25	765.60	794.76
Year 5 PV (M)	817.63	857.12	898.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,069.41	17,893.86	18,749.88
Equity Value (M)	20,308.84	21,235.04	22,195.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,565.00	1,565.00	1,565.00
Fair Value	$12.98	$13.57	$14.18
Upside / Downside	-53.44%	-51.31%	-49.11%

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Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. (000021.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener