Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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XPS Pensions Group plc (XPS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.40 - $150.50$65.19
Multi-Stage$23.70 - $25.92$24.79
Blended Fair Value$44.99
Current Price$3.75
Upside1,099.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.59%0.00%0.100.080.070.060.060.060.060.020.000.09
YoY Growth--23.08%17.57%10.85%2.60%0.51%1.56%245.53%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.69%3.57%4.36%5.07%4.99%5.55%4.38%0.96%0.00%6.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)285.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.2035.7521.45
Cash Retained (M)253.83253.83253.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.20-35.75-21.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.63218.08232.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.83219.83219.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.890.991.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.890.991.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.40$65.19$150.50
Upside / Downside923.94%1,638.52%3,913.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)285.99304.58324.38345.46367.92391.83403.59
Payout Ratio11.25%27.00%42.75%58.50%74.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.1682.23138.66202.09273.18352.65373.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)75.1775.8876.60
Year 2 PV (M)115.89118.10120.32
Year 3 PV (M)154.40158.83163.35
Year 4 PV (M)190.80198.14205.69
Year 5 PV (M)225.18236.05247.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,447.614,662.434,885.47
Equity Value (M)5,209.055,449.445,698.78
Shares Outstanding (M)219.83219.83219.83
Fair Value$23.70$24.79$25.92
Upside / Downside531.89%561.05%591.30%

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