Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $121.16 - $258.51 | $172.37 |
| Multi-Stage | $108.63 - $118.27 | $113.36 |
| Blended Fair Value | $142.87 | |
| Current Price | $83.53 | |
| Upside | 71.04% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 11.07% | 8.60% | 6.34 | 6.31 | 6.01 | 4.04 | 3.96 | 3.75 | 3.54 | 3.26 | 3.11 | 2.97 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.50% | 5.04% | 48.79% | 1.87% | 5.64% | 6.08% | 8.66% | 4.84% | 4.67% | 6.72% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.77% | 4.28% | 3.10% | 1.88% | 2.33% | 4.02% | 3.09% | 3.11% | 2.89% | 2.81% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5,502.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,395.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 107.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,100.40 | 687.75 | 412.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 107.00 | 107.00 | 107.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,100.40 | -687.75 | -412.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -993.40 | -580.75 | -305.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 851.00 | 851.00 | 851.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.17 | -0.68 | -0.36 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 6.34 | 6.34 | 6.34 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.17 | -0.68 | -0.36 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.17 | 5.66 | 5.98 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.63% | 5.63% | 6.63% |
| Fair Value | $121.16 | $172.37 | $258.51 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.04% | 106.35% | 209.48% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5,502.00 | 5,811.83 | 6,139.10 | 6,484.80 | 6,849.97 | 7,235.70 | 7,452.78 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.06% | 96.44% | 94.83% | 93.22% | 91.61% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,395.00 | 5,605.17 | 5,821.90 | 6,045.27 | 6,275.33 | 6,512.13 | 6,893.82 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.63% | 5.63% | 6.63% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,089.10 | 5,137.74 | 5,186.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,799.20 | 4,891.38 | 4,984.43 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,524.52 | 4,655.49 | 4,788.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,264.28 | 4,429.65 | 4,599.79 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,017.76 | 4,213.47 | 4,416.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 69,748.26 | 73,145.64 | 76,674.13 |
| Equity Value (M) | 92,443.12 | 96,473.36 | 100,650.41 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 851.00 | 851.00 | 851.00 |
| Fair Value | $108.63 | $113.36 | $118.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 30.05% | 35.72% | 41.59% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
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| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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