Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.36 - $8.90 | $7.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.65 - $20.62 | $19.61 |
| Blended Fair Value | $13.62 | |
| Current Price | $6.85 | |
| Upside | 98.81% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 28.63% | -4.43% | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.23% | 84.80% | 16.82% | 98.15% | -23.94% | 0.00% | -57.49% | -23.16% | -29.95% | -21.09% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.51% | 2.39% | 2.05% | 2.96% | 1.75% | 3.42% | 3.09% | 5.96% | 8.41% | 11.22% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,959.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 569.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,390.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 391.80 | 244.88 | 146.93 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,390.00 | 1,390.00 | 1,390.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -391.80 | -244.88 | -146.93 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 998.20 | 1,145.13 | 1,243.08 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,807.15 | 1,807.15 | 1,807.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.87 | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -6.43% | -5.43% | -4.43% |
| Fair Value | $6.36 | $7.62 | $8.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -7.22% | 11.28% | 29.92% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,959.00 | 1,852.71 | 1,752.19 | 1,657.12 | 1,567.21 | 1,482.18 | 1,526.64 |
| Payout Ratio | 29.05% | 41.24% | 53.43% | 65.62% | 77.81% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 569.00 | 763.99 | 936.15 | 1,087.37 | 1,219.43 | 1,333.96 | 1,412.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -6.43% | -5.43% | -4.43% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 710.83 | 718.42 | 726.02 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 810.39 | 827.80 | 845.40 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 875.80 | 904.18 | 933.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 913.82 | 953.51 | 994.48 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 930.08 | 980.85 | 1,033.81 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,454.04 | 31,061.88 | 32,739.17 |
| Equity Value (M) | 33,694.95 | 35,446.63 | 37,272.04 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,807.15 | 1,807.15 | 1,807.15 |
| Fair Value | $18.65 | $19.61 | $20.62 |
| Upside / Downside | 172.19% | 186.35% | 201.09% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |