Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tristel PLC (TSTL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.01 - $16.07$9.21
Multi-Stage$4.43 - $4.82$4.62
Blended Fair Value$6.92
Current Price$4.25
Upside62.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.01%36.76%0.130.090.060.060.050.050.040.060.050.02
YoY Growth--37.97%45.94%2.45%15.11%18.60%21.56%-34.77%6.33%248.54%176.47%
Dividend Yield--2.84%2.65%1.83%0.99%1.29%1.60%1.19%3.05%5.12%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.431.520.91
Cash Retained (M)0.760.760.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.43-1.52-0.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.67-0.76-0.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.01$9.21$16.07
Upside / Downside41.30%116.64%278.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.1712.9713.8114.7115.6616.6817.18
Payout Ratio93.73%92.99%92.24%91.49%90.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.4112.0612.7413.4514.2115.0115.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.9511.0511.16
Year 2 PV (M)10.5110.7110.91
Year 3 PV (M)10.0810.3710.66
Year 4 PV (M)9.6710.0410.42
Year 5 PV (M)9.289.7210.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)161.69169.50177.61
Equity Value (M)212.17221.39230.95
Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
Fair Value$4.43$4.62$4.82
Upside / Downside4.25%8.78%13.48%

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