Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Frasers Property Limited (TQ5.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.91$0.75
Multi-Stage$1.54 - $1.70$1.62
Blended Fair Value$1.18
Current Price$1.02
Upside16.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.90%-3.37%0.050.050.030.020.010.030.060.060.060.06
YoY Growth--0.00%50.00%50.00%78.46%-58.23%-58.05%0.26%0.23%0.18%0.17%
Dividend Yield--4.41%4.84%3.33%2.15%0.99%2.31%3.78%3.87%3.03%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)291.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.2236.3921.83
Cash Retained (M)114.42114.42114.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.22-36.39-21.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.2078.0492.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,926.043,926.043,926.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-3.10%-2.10%-1.10%
Fair Value$0.61$0.75$0.91
Upside / Downside-40.39%-26.33%-10.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)291.10284.98279.00273.14267.41261.79269.65
Payout Ratio60.69%66.55%72.42%78.28%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.67189.67202.04213.81224.99235.61249.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-3.10%-2.10%-1.10%
Year 1 PV (M)176.52178.34180.16
Year 2 PV (M)174.99178.62182.29
Year 3 PV (M)172.34177.74183.24
Year 4 PV (M)168.79175.86183.16
Year 5 PV (M)164.50173.16182.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,194.025,467.615,752.62
Equity Value (M)6,051.156,351.346,663.66
Shares Outstanding (M)3,926.043,926.043,926.04
Fair Value$1.54$1.62$1.70
Upside / Downside51.11%58.60%66.40%

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