Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thai President Foods Public Company Limited (TFMAMA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,254.36 - $2,393.27$2,242.84
Multi-Stage$378.67 - $414.27$396.14
Blended Fair Value$1,319.49
Current Price$197.50
Upside568.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.52%12.36%6.724.993.244.254.904.273.543.723.502.05
YoY Growth--34.76%54.01%-23.76%-13.22%14.73%20.58%-4.98%6.29%71.18%-2.33%
Dividend Yield--3.39%2.40%1.62%2.04%2.54%2.26%2.21%2.05%1.59%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,967.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,284.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,683.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)793.53495.96297.57
Cash Retained (M)1,683.061,683.061,683.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-793.53-495.96-297.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)889.531,187.101,385.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.70329.70329.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.703.604.20
LTM Dividend per Share6.936.936.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.703.604.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6310.5311.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,254.36$2,242.84$2,393.27
Upside / Downside535.12%1,035.62%1,111.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,967.664,225.564,500.224,792.745,104.275,436.045,599.13
Payout Ratio57.58%64.06%70.55%77.03%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,284.602,707.083,174.833,691.954,262.894,892.445,179.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,522.502,546.412,570.32
Year 2 PV (M)2,756.642,809.152,862.15
Year 3 PV (M)2,987.073,072.823,160.20
Year 4 PV (M)3,213.833,337.433,464.55
Year 5 PV (M)3,436.963,602.973,775.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,931.20115,240.92120,753.86
Equity Value (M)124,848.22130,609.70136,586.41
Shares Outstanding (M)329.70329.70329.70
Fair Value$378.67$396.14$414.27
Upside / Downside91.73%100.58%109.76%

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