Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Suzano S.A. (SUZB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$543.70 - $1,054.09$987.84
Multi-Stage$164.10 - $179.63$171.72
Blended Fair Value$579.78
Current Price$49.90
Upside1,061.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.78%29.53%1.310.163.350.010.000.490.170.460.240.22
YoY Growth--743.84%-95.36%42,766.69%0.00%-100.00%188.59%-63.16%90.24%11.11%120.93%
Dividend Yield--2.48%0.24%8.05%0.01%0.00%1.36%0.35%1.36%1.17%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,562.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,514.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,048.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,312.51820.32492.19
Cash Retained (M)4,048.084,048.084,048.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,312.51-820.32-492.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,735.573,227.763,555.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.151,238.151,238.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.212.612.87
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.212.612.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.244.644.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$543.70$987.84$1,054.09
Upside / Downside989.58%1,879.64%2,012.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,562.576,989.147,443.437,927.268,442.538,991.299,261.03
Payout Ratio38.32%48.65%58.99%69.33%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,514.493,400.394,390.835,495.676,725.588,092.168,566.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,168.153,198.183,228.21
Year 2 PV (M)3,811.543,884.143,957.42
Year 3 PV (M)4,444.784,572.374,702.39
Year 4 PV (M)5,067.995,262.895,463.36
Year 5 PV (M)5,681.305,955.706,240.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,001.89189,744.34198,821.40
Equity Value (M)203,175.64212,617.63222,413.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.151,238.151,238.15
Fair Value$164.10$171.72$179.63
Upside / Downside228.85%244.13%259.99%

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