Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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SNGN Romgaz S.A. (SNGR.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.01 - $278.73$261.21
Multi-Stage$38.35 - $41.95$40.12
Blended Fair Value$150.66
Current Price$46.77
Upside222.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-4.65%2.20%0.620.690.330.290.760.790.440.490.570.47
YoY Growth---9.99%112.16%11.23%-61.40%-3.86%80.73%-11.12%-14.34%22.93%-6.78%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.84%0.83%0.90%2.76%2.46%1.16%1.65%2.20%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,963.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,342.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,621.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)592.74370.46222.28
Cash Retained (M)1,621.401,621.401,621.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-592.74-370.46-222.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,028.661,250.941,399.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.632,114.632,114.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.01$261.21$278.73
Upside / Downside101.01%458.49%495.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,963.683,156.323,361.483,579.983,812.684,060.504,182.32
Payout Ratio45.29%54.23%63.17%72.12%81.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,342.291,711.762,123.612,581.753,090.493,654.453,868.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,588.351,603.401,618.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,828.421,863.251,898.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,062.622,121.832,182.17
Year 4 PV (M)2,291.042,379.152,469.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,513.802,635.212,761.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,808.7874,228.8777,779.85
Equity Value (M)81,093.0184,831.7288,709.94
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.632,114.632,114.63
Fair Value$38.35$40.12$41.95
Upside / Downside-18.01%-14.23%-10.30%

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