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Definitive Analysis

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PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,276.23 - $11,917.21$11,168.18
Multi-Stage$1,904.84 - $2,087.03$1,994.25
Blended Fair Value$6,581.21
Current Price$426.00
Upside1,444.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.55%-7.72%8.996.995.990.000.004.364.364.374.3617.45
YoY Growth--28.59%16.67%3,489,418.17%66.41%-100.00%0.01%-0.16%0.17%-75.00%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--2.28%1.33%1.13%0.00%0.00%1.13%0.44%0.50%0.34%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)989,245.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148,360.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)840,885.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197,849.05123,655.6574,193.39
Cash Retained (M)840,885.10840,885.10840,885.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-197,849.05-123,655.65-74,193.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)643,036.05717,229.45766,691.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,508.5716,508.5716,508.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.9543.4546.44
LTM Dividend per Share8.998.998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.9543.4546.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend47.9452.4355.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,276.23$11,168.18$11,917.21
Upside / Downside1,608.04%2,521.64%2,697.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)989,245.241,053,546.181,122,026.681,194,958.411,272,630.711,355,351.711,396,012.26
Payout Ratio15.00%30.00%45.00%60.00%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148,360.14316,041.15504,893.87716,962.17954,466.181,219,816.541,291,311.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)294,809.94297,604.34300,398.75
Year 2 PV (M)439,336.28447,704.40456,151.47
Year 3 PV (M)581,958.07598,663.99615,686.61
Year 4 PV (M)722,694.05750,486.82779,073.61
Year 5 PV (M)861,562.79903,176.60946,383.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,545,823.8829,924,597.8431,356,140.74
Equity Value (M)31,446,185.0032,922,233.9934,453,834.23
Shares Outstanding (M)16,508.5716,508.5716,508.57
Fair Value$1,904.84$1,994.25$2,087.03
Upside / Downside347.15%368.13%389.91%

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