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Definitive Analysis

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Sanlorenzo S.p.A. (SL.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.10 - $601.51$197.26
Multi-Stage$61.61 - $67.35$64.43
Blended Fair Value$130.85
Current Price$29.85
Upside338.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS55.73%0.00%0.990.650.590.290.000.110.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--51.47%11.28%99.87%0.00%-100.00%1,166.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.44%1.59%1.47%0.80%0.00%1.06%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2313.277.96
Cash Retained (M)70.9670.9670.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.23-13.27-7.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.7357.6963.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.1035.1035.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.641.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.641.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.422.652.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$105.10$197.26$601.51
Upside / Downside252.10%560.85%1,915.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.17113.07120.42128.24136.58145.46149.82
Payout Ratio33.16%44.53%55.90%67.26%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.2150.3567.3186.26107.40130.91138.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.2146.6547.09
Year 2 PV (M)56.7057.7858.87
Year 3 PV (M)66.7068.6170.56
Year 4 PV (M)76.2279.1582.16
Year 5 PV (M)85.2789.3993.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,831.481,919.942,011.79
Equity Value (M)2,162.582,261.532,364.15
Shares Outstanding (M)35.1035.1035.10
Fair Value$61.61$64.43$67.35
Upside / Downside106.40%115.84%125.63%

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