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Definitive Analysis

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Skanska AB (publ) (SKA-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$146.63 - $230.62$185.14
Multi-Stage$325.48 - $358.02$341.43
Blended Fair Value$263.29
Current Price$243.90
Upside7.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.72%-1.28%5.447.429.939.433.235.938.128.147.416.68
YoY Growth---26.74%-25.29%5.28%192.31%-45.57%-27.01%-0.21%9.92%10.81%8.06%
Dividend Yield--2.46%3.96%6.27%4.46%1.47%3.92%4.68%4.77%3.51%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,188.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,735.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,237.60773.50464.10
Cash Retained (M)2,735.002,735.002,735.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,237.60-773.50-464.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,497.401,961.502,270.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.17415.17415.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.614.725.47
LTM Dividend per Share8.328.328.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.614.725.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9213.0413.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Fair Value$146.63$185.14$230.62
Upside / Downside-39.88%-24.09%-5.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,188.006,151.936,116.076,080.426,044.986,009.746,190.04
Payout Ratio55.80%62.64%69.48%76.32%83.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,453.003,853.654,249.504,640.625,027.025,408.775,725.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Year 1 PV (M)3,584.743,621.163,657.58
Year 2 PV (M)3,677.133,752.243,828.10
Year 3 PV (M)3,735.363,850.383,967.74
Year 4 PV (M)3,764.033,919.364,079.45
Year 5 PV (M)3,767.263,962.584,165.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,603.41122,648.97128,942.72
Equity Value (M)135,131.92141,754.68148,641.51
Shares Outstanding (M)415.17415.17415.17
Fair Value$325.48$341.43$358.02
Upside / Downside33.45%39.99%46.79%

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