Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sievi Capital Plc (SIEVI.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.57 - $0.82$0.70
Multi-Stage$0.87 - $0.96$0.92
Blended Fair Value$0.81
Current Price$1.18
Upside-31.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.040.190.030.000.000.450.100.350.06
YoY Growth---100.00%-78.85%533.82%0.00%0.00%-100.00%350.00%-71.43%483.69%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.10%17.65%2.37%0.00%0.00%34.97%7.54%30.78%6.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.960.600.36
Cash Retained (M)4.764.764.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.96-0.60-0.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.804.164.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.6257.6257.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.57$0.70$0.82
Upside / Downside-51.34%-41.05%-30.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.794.754.704.654.614.564.70
Payout Ratio0.75%18.60%36.45%54.30%72.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.040.881.712.533.324.104.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.800.810.82
Year 2 PV (M)1.401.431.46
Year 3 PV (M)1.871.931.99
Year 4 PV (M)2.232.322.42
Year 5 PV (M)2.492.622.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)41.4943.6545.89
Equity Value (M)50.2852.7655.34
Shares Outstanding (M)57.6257.6257.62
Fair Value$0.87$0.92$0.96
Upside / Downside-26.04%-22.39%-18.60%

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