Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seplat Energy Plc (SEPL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.55 - $6.63$4.81
Multi-Stage$4.29 - $4.71$4.50
Blended Fair Value$4.65
Current Price$3.21
Upside45.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.25%2.24%0.160.170.100.120.100.100.100.000.040.12
YoY Growth---7.54%67.92%-19.78%25.73%-0.62%-0.31%0.00%-100.00%-68.63%-1.86%
Dividend Yield--6.93%9.28%7.75%8.72%9.01%13.98%6.29%0.00%4.07%8.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7517.3410.40
Cash Retained (M)100.33100.33100.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.75-17.34-10.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.5882.9989.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)588.45588.45588.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Fair Value$3.55$4.81$6.63
Upside / Downside10.74%49.92%106.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.73143.34148.10153.03158.12163.37168.27
Payout Ratio27.68%40.14%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4057.5477.9299.58122.60147.03155.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)52.8953.4053.92
Year 2 PV (M)65.8167.1168.41
Year 3 PV (M)77.3079.5981.93
Year 4 PV (M)87.4790.9494.51
Year 5 PV (M)96.42101.22106.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,147.192,254.182,365.40
Equity Value (M)2,527.082,646.442,770.38
Shares Outstanding (M)588.45588.45588.45
Fair Value$4.29$4.50$4.71
Upside / Downside33.79%40.10%46.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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