Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Swedencare AB (publ) (SECARE.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.74 - $78.63$73.68
Multi-Stage$19.31 - $21.16$20.22
Blended Fair Value$46.95
Current Price$33.95
Upside38.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%33.71%0.230.220.200.110.070.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--4.58%10.37%86.63%53.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-24.96%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.35%0.78%0.09%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.607.884.73
Cash Retained (M)23.0023.0023.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.60-7.88-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.4015.1318.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.35159.35159.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.74$73.68$78.63
Upside / Downside96.57%117.04%131.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.0067.1071.4676.1081.0586.3288.90
Payout Ratio63.49%68.79%74.10%79.40%84.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.0046.1652.9560.4268.6577.6882.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.4843.8944.30
Year 2 PV (M)46.9847.8848.78
Year 3 PV (M)50.5151.9653.44
Year 4 PV (M)54.0656.1358.27
Year 5 PV (M)57.6260.4163.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,825.222,961.683,103.37
Equity Value (M)3,077.883,221.953,371.46
Shares Outstanding (M)159.35159.35159.35
Fair Value$19.31$20.22$21.16
Upside / Downside-43.11%-40.44%-37.68%

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