Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sabre Insurance Group plc (SBRE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.56 - $2.20$1.88
Multi-Stage$2.50 - $2.74$2.62
Blended Fair Value$2.25
Current Price$1.48
Upside51.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.01%-10.22%0.100.030.120.150.180.170.070.130.220.12
YoY Growth--276.57%-78.54%-21.50%-12.50%0.57%143.01%-43.37%-43.31%92.71%-59.46%
Dividend Yield--7.05%1.71%11.35%8.33%6.32%5.66%2.63%4.65%8.69%4.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.937.464.47
Cash Retained (M)19.0819.0819.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.93-7.46-4.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.1511.6214.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.45250.45250.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.56$1.88$2.20
Upside / Downside5.16%26.76%48.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.6659.0758.4857.8957.3156.7458.44
Payout Ratio68.02%72.42%76.81%81.21%85.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5842.7744.9247.0149.0651.0754.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)38.4938.8839.28
Year 2 PV (M)36.3737.1237.87
Year 3 PV (M)34.2635.3236.40
Year 4 PV (M)32.1833.5134.88
Year 5 PV (M)30.1431.7133.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)455.78479.51504.23
Equity Value (M)627.22656.06686.01
Shares Outstanding (M)250.45250.45250.45
Fair Value$2.50$2.62$2.74
Upside / Downside69.22%76.99%85.07%

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