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Definitive Analysis

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Samart Telcoms Public Company Limited (SAMTEL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.46 - $0.60$0.53
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.76$1.67
Blended Fair Value$1.10
Current Price$4.54
Upside-75.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.10%-23.19%0.050.190.110.000.320.550.330.250.250.65
YoY Growth---73.69%72.75%0.00%-100.00%-41.82%66.67%32.00%0.00%-61.54%-7.11%
Dividend Yield--0.90%6.09%2.50%0.00%4.64%11.13%3.75%2.43%1.84%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2313.898.34
Cash Retained (M)18.4618.4618.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.23-13.89-8.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.774.5610.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)618.00618.00618.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-18.62%-17.62%-16.62%
Fair Value$0.46$0.53$0.60
Upside / Downside-89.80%-88.24%-86.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.1591.5775.4462.1551.2042.1843.44
Payout Ratio83.39%84.72%86.04%87.36%88.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.7077.5764.9054.2945.4037.9640.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-18.62%-17.62%-16.62%
Year 1 PV (M)71.8572.7373.61
Year 2 PV (M)55.6757.0558.44
Year 3 PV (M)43.1344.7446.39
Year 4 PV (M)33.4035.0836.81
Year 5 PV (M)25.8727.5029.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)747.84794.93844.37
Equity Value (M)977.761,032.021,088.83
Shares Outstanding (M)618.00618.00618.00
Fair Value$1.58$1.67$1.76
Upside / Downside-65.15%-63.22%-61.19%

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