Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Scottish American Investment Company PLC (SAIN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.30 - $18.18$12.81
Multi-Stage$8.28 - $9.04$8.65
Blended Fair Value$10.73
Current Price$5.09
Upside110.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.72%6.42%0.150.140.140.120.100.100.090.080.080.08
YoY Growth--4.04%4.19%13.28%13.99%8.53%7.88%6.67%2.65%1.75%2.05%
Dividend Yield--2.93%2.63%2.66%2.20%2.25%2.26%2.55%2.28%2.52%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)98.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.7612.357.41
Cash Retained (M)53.2353.2353.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.76-12.35-7.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4740.8845.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.40176.40176.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$9.30$12.81$18.18
Upside / Downside82.63%151.67%257.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)98.78104.14109.78115.73122.01128.62132.48
Payout Ratio46.12%54.89%63.67%72.45%81.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.5657.1669.9083.8499.10115.76122.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)51.7352.2352.72
Year 2 PV (M)57.2458.3559.46
Year 3 PV (M)62.1463.9465.78
Year 4 PV (M)66.4769.0571.71
Year 5 PV (M)70.2673.6977.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,152.681,208.941,267.38
Equity Value (M)1,460.521,526.201,594.30
Shares Outstanding (M)176.40176.40176.40
Fair Value$8.28$8.65$9.04
Upside / Downside62.67%69.98%77.57%

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