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Definitive Analysis

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Roularta Media Group N.V. (ROU.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.14 - $9.84$7.81
Multi-Stage$13.85 - $15.23$14.53
Blended Fair Value$11.17
Current Price$15.60
Upside-28.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.06%0.00%0.370.960.960.950.000.515.100.510.510.00
YoY Growth---61.05%0.14%0.32%0.00%-100.00%-90.00%900.53%0.24%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.32%7.43%5.39%5.02%0.00%3.63%34.84%2.32%2.09%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.440.900.54
Cash Retained (M)2.632.632.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.44-0.90-0.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.181.722.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.2912.2912.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Fair Value$6.14$7.81$9.84
Upside / Downside-60.67%-49.92%-36.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.227.197.177.147.127.107.31
Payout Ratio63.60%68.88%74.16%79.44%84.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.594.955.325.686.036.396.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4.624.664.71
Year 2 PV (M)4.624.714.81
Year 3 PV (M)4.594.734.88
Year 4 PV (M)4.554.744.93
Year 5 PV (M)4.494.724.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)147.35154.97162.91
Equity Value (M)170.22178.54187.20
Shares Outstanding (M)12.2912.2912.29
Fair Value$13.85$14.53$15.23
Upside / Downside-11.20%-6.86%-2.34%

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