Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Porto Seguro S.A. (PSSA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$356.80 - $986.18$924.19
Multi-Stage$137.20 - $150.20$143.58
Blended Fair Value$533.88
Current Price$49.86
Upside970.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.05%2.77%1.290.550.971.301.061.011.910.500.070.32
YoY Growth--134.79%-43.27%-25.42%22.41%5.22%-47.17%279.97%613.32%-77.75%-67.76%
Dividend Yield--3.23%1.85%4.55%7.17%5.57%5.78%9.44%3.11%0.76%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,212.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)871.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,341.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)642.60401.62240.97
Cash Retained (M)2,341.872,341.872,341.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-642.60-401.62-240.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,699.271,940.242,100.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)647.94647.94647.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.622.993.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.341.341.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.622.993.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$356.80$924.19$986.18
Upside / Downside615.61%1,753.57%1,877.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,212.983,421.833,644.253,881.124,133.404,402.074,534.13
Payout Ratio27.11%39.69%52.27%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)871.121,358.121,904.762,516.713,200.183,961.864,194.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,261.211,273.161,285.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,642.621,673.901,705.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,015.482,073.342,132.29
Year 4 PV (M)2,379.952,471.482,565.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,736.162,868.323,005.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,860.7282,669.7286,624.50
Equity Value (M)88,896.1493,029.9297,318.55
Shares Outstanding (M)647.94647.94647.94
Fair Value$137.20$143.58$150.20
Upside / Downside175.17%187.96%201.24%

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