Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Palma Serasih Tbk (PSGO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$196.18 - $304.84$246.42
Multi-Stage$454.09 - $500.12$476.65
Blended Fair Value$361.53
Current Price$220.00
Upside64.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%8.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)391,880.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,800.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)241,080.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78,376.0648,985.0429,391.02
Cash Retained (M)241,080.27241,080.27241,080.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-78,376.06-48,985.04-29,391.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)162,704.20192,095.23211,689.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6318.1919.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$196.18$246.42$304.84
Upside / Downside-10.83%12.01%38.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)391,880.32387,961.51384,081.90380,241.08376,438.67372,674.28383,854.51
Payout Ratio38.48%48.78%59.09%69.39%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,800.05189,266.71226,948.96263,858.64300,007.43335,406.85355,065.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)176,237.42178,035.76179,834.11
Year 2 PV (M)196,777.75200,814.11204,891.45
Year 3 PV (M)213,031.10219,619.23226,341.80
Year 4 PV (M)225,542.08234,889.75244,525.01
Year 5 PV (M)234,796.38247,022.78259,753.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,513,269.017,904,502.368,311,866.52
Equity Value (M)8,559,653.748,984,883.989,427,212.16
Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
Fair Value$454.09$476.65$500.12
Upside / Downside106.41%116.66%127.33%

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