Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Participações Aliança da Bahia (PEAB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.34 - $8.36$7.40
Multi-Stage$19.14 - $21.19$20.14
Blended Fair Value$13.77
Current Price$37.30
Upside-63.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.01%-2.77%1.260.221.268.0922.973.842.232.050.871.80
YoY Growth--474.45%-82.59%-84.47%-64.76%498.37%71.83%8.92%136.26%-51.85%8.29%
Dividend Yield--2.76%0.59%4.18%12.45%37.68%6.40%6.36%5.13%2.78%6.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.554.092.46
Cash Retained (M)6.986.986.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.55-4.09-2.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.432.894.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.6918.6918.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.150.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.381.381.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.150.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-12.26%-11.26%-10.26%
Fair Value$6.34$7.40$8.36
Upside / Downside-82.99%-80.16%-77.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.7529.0625.7922.8820.3118.0218.56
Payout Ratio78.68%80.95%83.21%85.47%87.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.7723.5221.4619.5617.8216.2217.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-12.26%-11.26%-10.26%
Year 1 PV (M)21.7121.9622.21
Year 2 PV (M)18.2818.7019.12
Year 3 PV (M)15.3815.9116.45
Year 4 PV (M)12.9313.5314.15
Year 5 PV (M)10.8611.5012.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)278.62294.86311.86
Equity Value (M)357.78376.45395.95
Shares Outstanding (M)18.6918.6918.69
Fair Value$19.14$20.14$21.19
Upside / Downside-48.68%-46.00%-43.20%

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