Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Civmec Limited (P9D.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.53 - $24.99$23.42
Multi-Stage$3.78 - $4.13$3.95
Blended Fair Value$13.69
Current Price$1.06
Upside1,191.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS53.45%24.17%0.060.050.040.020.020.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth--20.83%38.74%89.02%-4.72%181.76%3.98%-0.87%-0.79%0.00%0.14%
Dividend Yield--5.62%5.37%3.88%3.00%3.06%1.90%1.63%1.39%1.17%2.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.888.054.83
Cash Retained (M)39.5539.5539.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.88-8.05-4.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.6731.5034.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)512.48512.48512.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.53$23.42$24.99
Upside / Downside988.00%2,109.77%2,257.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.4168.5973.0577.8082.8688.2490.89
Payout Ratio38.60%48.88%59.16%69.44%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.8633.5343.2254.0266.0579.4284.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.2131.5031.80
Year 2 PV (M)37.4538.1638.88
Year 3 PV (M)43.5744.8346.10
Year 4 PV (M)49.5951.5053.46
Year 5 PV (M)55.5158.1960.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,718.211,801.201,887.37
Equity Value (M)1,935.542,025.382,118.58
Shares Outstanding (M)512.48512.48512.48
Fair Value$3.78$3.95$4.13
Upside / Downside256.30%272.84%290.00%

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