Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $22.10 - $35.21 | $28.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.81 - $32.56 | $31.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $29.61 | |
| Current Price | $47.25 | |
| Upside | -37.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.24% | -4.15% | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 1.87 | 2.66 | 2.41 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.30 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.93% | 15.29% | 41.12% | -54.53% | -29.69% | 10.53% | 1.19% | 1.60% | 1.99% | 2.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.97% | 2.09% | 1.92% | 1.50% | 7.03% | 22.98% | 3.58% | 3.66% | 3.70% | 3.36% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,067.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,563.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 413.40 | 258.38 | 155.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 | 504.00 | 504.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -413.40 | -258.38 | -155.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 90.60 | 245.63 | 348.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.94 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Fair Value | $22.10 | $28.06 | $35.21 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.23% | -40.62% | -25.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,067.00 | 2,116.68 | 2,167.56 | 2,219.65 | 2,273.00 | 2,327.63 | 2,397.46 |
| Payout Ratio | 75.62% | 78.49% | 81.37% | 84.25% | 87.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,563.00 | 1,661.46 | 1,763.74 | 1,869.99 | 1,980.32 | 2,094.87 | 2,217.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,508.03 | 1,522.90 | 1,537.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,453.04 | 1,481.84 | 1,510.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,398.31 | 1,440.08 | 1,482.69 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,344.06 | 1,397.87 | 1,453.28 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,290.52 | 1,355.42 | 1,422.90 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,403.36 | 23,530.03 | 24,701.57 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,397.32 | 30,728.14 | 32,109.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| Fair Value | $29.81 | $31.16 | $32.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.91% | -34.05% | -31.09% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |