Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Olvi Oyj (OLVAS.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.75 - $521.28$488.49
Multi-Stage$81.94 - $89.71$85.75
Blended Fair Value$287.12
Current Price$29.95
Upside858.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.80%6.29%1.211.231.221.131.000.910.800.750.700.65
YoY Growth---1.70%0.28%8.73%11.98%10.47%13.26%6.50%7.19%7.51%-0.13%
Dividend Yield--3.58%4.01%4.09%3.16%2.06%2.49%2.49%2.68%2.60%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.886.804.08
Cash Retained (M)27.6327.6327.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.88-6.80-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.7520.8323.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.6520.6520.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.811.011.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.811.011.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.302.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate4.98%5.98%6.98%
Fair Value$173.75$488.49$521.28
Upside / Downside480.14%1,531.03%1,640.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.4057.6561.1064.7668.6372.7374.92
Payout Ratio49.21%57.37%65.53%73.69%81.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7733.0840.0447.7256.1765.4669.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate4.98%5.98%6.98%
Year 1 PV (M)30.8431.1331.42
Year 2 PV (M)34.8035.4636.14
Year 3 PV (M)38.6639.7840.91
Year 4 PV (M)42.4344.0745.75
Year 5 PV (M)46.1048.3350.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,499.551,572.341,647.94
Equity Value (M)1,692.361,771.111,852.82
Shares Outstanding (M)20.6520.6520.65
Fair Value$81.94$85.75$89.71
Upside / Downside173.59%186.32%199.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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