Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Northern Star Resources Limited (NST.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.12 - $334.53$313.50
Multi-Stage$49.15 - $53.78$51.42
Blended Fair Value$182.46
Current Price$18.55
Upside883.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS62.94%35.63%0.480.280.220.190.260.040.060.050.050.03
YoY Growth--67.49%30.71%16.95%-29.69%537.97%-30.81%11.06%5.47%66.74%35.75%
Dividend Yield--2.56%2.20%1.80%2.71%2.70%0.31%0.53%0.74%1.07%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,978.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)892.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,085.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)395.64247.28148.37
Cash Retained (M)1,085.601,085.601,085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-395.64-247.28-148.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)689.96838.33937.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,176.031,176.031,176.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.351.471.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.12$313.50$334.53
Upside / Downside644.58%1,590.03%1,703.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,978.202,106.782,243.722,389.572,544.892,710.312,791.61
Payout Ratio45.12%54.10%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)892.601,139.721,415.191,721.652,061.982,439.272,582.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,059.831,069.881,079.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,223.751,247.061,270.59
Year 3 PV (M)1,384.411,424.151,464.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,541.851,601.151,662.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,696.131,778.051,863.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,895.9153,354.2055,906.57
Equity Value (M)57,801.8860,474.4863,246.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,176.031,176.031,176.03
Fair Value$49.15$51.42$53.78
Upside / Downside164.96%177.21%189.92%

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