Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northam Platinum Holdings Limited (NPH.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.40 - $78.68$66.87
Multi-Stage$93.51 - $102.11$97.73
Blended Fair Value$82.30
Current Price$191.71
Upside-57.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.846.940.000.150.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---87.87%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.44%5.77%0.00%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,286.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,062.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)657.31410.82246.49
Cash Retained (M)223.87223.87223.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-657.31-410.82-246.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)-433.44-186.95-22.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.41393.41393.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.10-0.48-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share7.787.787.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.10-0.48-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.687.317.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$55.40$66.87$78.68
Upside / Downside-71.10%-65.12%-58.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,286.543,253.673,221.133,188.923,157.033,125.463,219.23
Payout Ratio93.19%92.55%91.91%91.28%90.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,062.673,011.292,960.642,910.702,861.462,812.922,977.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,714.292,741.982,769.68
Year 2 PV (M)2,405.422,454.762,504.60
Year 3 PV (M)2,131.602,197.522,264.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,888.851,967.142,047.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,673.671,760.821,851.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,972.5027,324.9528,733.16
Equity Value (M)36,786.3338,447.1740,171.62
Shares Outstanding (M)393.41393.41393.41
Fair Value$93.51$97.73$102.11
Upside / Downside-51.22%-49.02%-46.74%

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