Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Grid plc (NNGF.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.60 - $32.46$22.88
Multi-Stage$26.99 - $29.62$28.28
Blended Fair Value$25.58
Current Price$10.82
Upside136.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.380.350.200.310.200.260.990.320.30
YoY Growth---100.00%6.91%74.30%-34.75%58.41%-23.10%-74.15%206.70%9.42%5.19%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.76%3.50%1.90%3.89%2.29%2.95%13.24%3.16%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,816.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,865.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)936.20585.13351.08
Cash Retained (M)1,865.001,865.001,865.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-936.20-585.13-351.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)928.801,279.881,513.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,531.504,531.504,531.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$16.60$22.88$32.46
Upside / Downside53.45%111.46%200.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,681.004,785.984,893.315,003.045,115.245,229.965,386.86
Payout Ratio60.16%66.13%72.09%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,816.003,164.803,527.823,905.544,298.424,706.964,982.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)2,948.622,977.743,006.87
Year 2 PV (M)3,062.333,123.123,184.52
Year 3 PV (M)3,158.633,253.163,349.55
Year 4 PV (M)3,238.923,368.793,502.53
Year 5 PV (M)3,304.493,470.943,644.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,594.65111,963.99117,547.56
Equity Value (M)122,307.63128,157.75134,235.06
Shares Outstanding (M)4,531.504,531.504,531.50
Fair Value$26.99$28.28$29.62
Upside / Downside149.45%161.38%173.78%

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