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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.22 - $47.38$33.38
Multi-Stage$25.98 - $28.49$27.21
Blended Fair Value$30.30
Current Price$25.81
Upside17.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.742.341.40
Cash Retained (M)17.4417.4417.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.74-2.34-1.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7015.1016.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.6312.6312.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.201.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.201.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate2.92%3.92%4.92%
Fair Value$24.22$33.38$47.38
Upside / Downside-6.16%29.33%83.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.6919.4220.1820.9821.8022.6523.33
Payout Ratio6.71%23.37%40.03%56.68%73.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.254.548.0811.8915.9920.3921.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate2.92%3.92%4.92%
Year 1 PV (M)4.164.204.24
Year 2 PV (M)6.806.937.07
Year 3 PV (M)9.189.459.73
Year 4 PV (M)11.3311.7712.23
Year 5 PV (M)13.2513.9114.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)283.30297.34311.92
Equity Value (M)328.02343.60359.78
Shares Outstanding (M)12.6312.6312.63
Fair Value$25.98$27.21$28.49
Upside / Downside0.65%5.43%10.40%

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