Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Motive Capital Corp II (MTVC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Shell CompaniesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.86 - $4.53$3.62
Multi-Stage$7.18 - $7.92$7.54
Blended Fair Value$5.58
Current Price$10.44
Upside-46.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.301.440.86
Cash Retained (M)11.2711.2711.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.30-1.44-0.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.979.8310.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.5440.5440.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.86$3.62$4.53
Upside / Downside-72.64%-65.33%-56.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.5211.4111.3011.1811.0710.9611.29
Payout Ratio2.21%19.77%37.32%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.252.264.226.148.029.8610.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.112.132.15
Year 2 PV (M)3.693.773.84
Year 3 PV (M)5.035.185.34
Year 4 PV (M)6.156.406.66
Year 5 PV (M)7.077.447.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.01280.91295.39
Equity Value (M)291.05305.83321.21
Shares Outstanding (M)40.5440.5440.54
Fair Value$7.18$7.54$7.92
Upside / Downside-31.23%-27.74%-24.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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