Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Livermore Investments Group Limited (LIV.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.86$0.73
Multi-Stage$0.99 - $1.08$1.03
Blended Fair Value$0.88
Current Price$0.67
Upside30.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%3.41%0.040.030.150.050.040.000.050.090.000.03
YoY Growth--40.89%-79.33%200.00%33.33%0.00%-100.00%-46.67%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.56%7.48%31.11%7.30%7.18%0.00%9.61%14.06%0.00%6.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.061.911.15
Cash Retained (M)3.363.363.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.06-1.91-1.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.301.452.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.36165.36165.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.61$0.73$0.86
Upside / Downside-10.19%8.26%27.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.3115.1615.0114.8614.7114.5615.00
Payout Ratio78.04%80.43%82.82%85.21%87.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.9512.1912.4312.6612.8813.1013.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.9711.0811.20
Year 2 PV (M)10.0710.2710.48
Year 3 PV (M)9.239.519.81
Year 4 PV (M)8.458.809.17
Year 5 PV (M)7.748.148.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)117.21123.31129.67
Equity Value (M)163.67171.13178.88
Shares Outstanding (M)165.36165.36165.36
Fair Value$0.99$1.03$1.08
Upside / Downside46.81%53.50%60.45%

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