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Definitive Analysis

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Lazard Ltd (LAZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.38 - $50.67$39.32
Multi-Stage$54.45 - $59.74$57.04
Blended Fair Value$48.18
Current Price$52.78
Upside-8.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.83%2.04%1.701.641.721.861.862.423.413.243.192.76
YoY Growth--3.43%-4.84%-7.18%-0.33%-22.88%-29.12%5.33%1.58%15.64%98.77%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.01%5.21%5.39%4.29%10.26%9.15%6.16%6.93%7.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.6634.1620.50
Cash Retained (M)88.8888.8888.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.66-34.16-20.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.2354.7268.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.44105.44105.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.520.65
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.520.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.272.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$30.38$39.32$50.67
Upside / Downside-42.44%-25.50%-3.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.28276.13279.01281.92284.86287.83296.46
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.40198.76213.40228.33243.54259.04274.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)184.14185.98187.82
Year 2 PV (M)183.16186.84190.56
Year 3 PV (M)181.56187.06192.67
Year 4 PV (M)179.42186.70194.20
Year 5 PV (M)176.80185.82195.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,835.735,082.295,338.81
Equity Value (M)5,740.816,014.696,299.25
Shares Outstanding (M)105.44105.44105.44
Fair Value$54.45$57.04$59.74
Upside / Downside3.15%8.08%13.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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