Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kt Medical Service Public Company Limited (KTMS.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.13 - $1.70$1.40
Multi-Stage$2.15 - $2.37$2.26
Blended Fair Value$1.83
Current Price$2.04
Upside-10.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---57.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.195.123.07
Cash Retained (M)33.9533.9533.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.19-5.12-3.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.7728.8430.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.20300.20300.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.13$1.40$1.70
Upside / Downside-44.49%-31.40%-16.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.9440.5340.1339.7339.3338.9440.10
Payout Ratio17.07%31.66%46.24%60.83%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.9912.8318.5624.1629.6635.0437.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.8211.9412.06
Year 2 PV (M)15.7516.0716.40
Year 3 PV (M)18.9019.4820.08
Year 4 PV (M)21.3722.2623.17
Year 5 PV (M)23.2624.4725.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)554.40583.26613.32
Equity Value (M)645.50677.50710.77
Shares Outstanding (M)300.20300.20300.20
Fair Value$2.15$2.26$2.37
Upside / Downside5.40%10.63%16.06%

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