Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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KONE Oyj (KC4.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.66 - $40.60$30.98
Multi-Stage$44.58 - $48.88$46.69
Blended Fair Value$38.83
Current Price$53.54
Upside-27.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.23%5.35%1.751.752.111.841.701.651.641.541.391.19
YoY Growth--0.07%-16.81%14.60%7.80%3.38%0.29%6.76%10.75%16.53%14.66%
Dividend Yield--3.27%4.06%4.37%3.83%2.45%3.20%3.57%3.84%3.40%5.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)976.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)931.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.20122.0073.20
Cash Retained (M)44.7044.7044.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.20-122.00-73.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-150.50-77.30-28.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)516.66516.66516.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.29-0.15-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.801.801.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.29-0.15-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.14%1.14%2.14%
Fair Value$23.66$30.98$40.60
Upside / Downside-55.81%-42.13%-24.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)976.00987.16998.451,009.861,021.411,033.091,064.08
Payout Ratio95.42%94.34%93.25%92.17%91.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)931.30931.25931.07930.77930.34929.78984.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.14%1.14%2.14%
Year 1 PV (M)865.44874.09882.73
Year 2 PV (M)804.14820.28836.58
Year 3 PV (M)747.07769.68792.74
Year 4 PV (M)693.96722.10751.09
Year 5 PV (M)644.54677.37711.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,276.7420,258.6121,280.09
Equity Value (M)23,031.9024,122.1225,254.74
Shares Outstanding (M)516.66516.66516.66
Fair Value$44.58$46.69$48.88
Upside / Downside-16.74%-12.80%-8.70%

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