Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk (JARR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.05 - $484.02$395.90
Multi-Stage$651.96 - $718.34$684.49
Blended Fair Value$540.20
Current Price$376.00
Upside43.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333,269.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,153.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)281,116.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66,653.8841,658.6724,995.20
Cash Retained (M)281,116.14281,116.14281,116.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-66,653.88-41,658.67-24,995.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)214,462.26239,457.46256,120.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,230.679,230.679,230.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.2325.9427.75
LTM Dividend per Share5.655.655.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.2325.9427.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.8831.5933.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$318.05$395.90$484.02
Upside / Downside-15.41%5.29%28.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333,269.40329,936.70326,637.34323,370.96320,137.25316,935.88326,443.96
Payout Ratio15.65%30.52%45.39%60.26%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,153.26100,693.99148,258.69194,862.02240,518.46285,242.29301,960.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)93,243.1894,194.6595,146.11
Year 2 PV (M)127,129.77129,737.49132,371.69
Year 3 PV (M)154,727.63159,512.69164,395.40
Year 4 PV (M)176,849.02184,178.58191,733.66
Year 5 PV (M)194,214.53204,327.73214,857.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,271,862.065,546,380.155,832,216.80
Equity Value (M)6,018,026.196,318,331.296,630,721.55
Shares Outstanding (M)9,230.679,230.679,230.67
Fair Value$651.96$684.49$718.34
Upside / Downside73.39%82.05%91.05%

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