Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Izostal S.A. (IZS.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.90 - $6.06$4.90
Multi-Stage$8.81 - $9.71$9.26
Blended Fair Value$7.08
Current Price$3.19
Upside121.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.09%-2.84%0.090.120.120.120.110.130.090.070.000.07
YoY Growth---24.99%0.00%0.00%9.08%-15.39%44.45%28.58%0.00%-100.00%-41.66%
Dividend Yield--3.23%4.70%3.66%4.25%3.23%6.09%2.78%1.63%0.00%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.701.691.01
Cash Retained (M)10.5710.5710.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.70-1.69-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.868.889.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.6932.6932.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$3.90$4.90$6.06
Upside / Downside22.23%53.52%89.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.5113.3813.2513.1213.0012.8713.26
Payout Ratio21.81%35.45%49.09%62.72%76.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.954.746.518.239.9311.5812.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)4.424.464.51
Year 2 PV (M)5.645.755.87
Year 3 PV (M)6.646.847.05
Year 4 PV (M)7.457.768.08
Year 5 PV (M)8.098.528.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)255.86269.18283.05
Equity Value (M)288.10302.51317.51
Shares Outstanding (M)32.6932.6932.69
Fair Value$8.81$9.26$9.71
Upside / Downside176.31%190.13%204.52%

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