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Definitive Analysis

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Iluka Resources Limited (ILU.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.12 - $11.92$9.95
Multi-Stage$17.00 - $18.74$17.85
Blended Fair Value$13.90
Current Price$3.80
Upside265.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.58%-2.16%0.080.220.340.130.080.230.250.060.210.18
YoY Growth---65.36%-33.92%164.98%69.94%-67.37%-7.76%331.47%-72.75%15.85%90.19%
Dividend Yield--1.54%3.40%3.56%1.27%1.16%4.96%6.57%1.14%5.85%5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.4257.7634.66
Cash Retained (M)399.00399.00399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.42-57.76-34.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.58341.24364.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Fair Value$8.12$9.95$11.92
Upside / Downside113.70%161.80%213.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.10452.78443.64434.69425.92417.33429.85
Payout Ratio13.66%28.92%44.19%59.46%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.10130.96196.06258.48318.30375.60397.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)120.94122.18123.43
Year 2 PV (M)167.19170.66174.16
Year 3 PV (M)203.54209.91216.40
Year 4 PV (M)231.46241.16251.15
Year 5 PV (M)252.22265.50279.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,380.556,716.357,066.15
Equity Value (M)7,355.907,725.758,110.62
Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
Fair Value$17.00$17.85$18.74
Upside / Downside347.31%369.80%393.20%

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