Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $69.30 - $103.25 | $85.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $109.61 - $119.84 | $114.63 |
| Blended Fair Value | $100.05 | |
| Current Price | $282.16 | |
| Upside | -64.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.50% | 3.72% | 6.50 | 6.39 | 6.29 | 6.21 | 6.13 | 6.03 | 5.99 | 5.82 | 5.56 | 5.18 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.77% | 1.55% | 1.35% | 1.24% | 1.58% | 0.72% | 2.91% | 4.76% | 7.33% | 14.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.61% | 3.36% | 4.80% | 4.77% | 4.81% | 5.69% | 4.38% | 3.97% | 3.34% | 3.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,907.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6,227.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,680.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,581.40 | 988.38 | 593.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,680.00 | 1,680.00 | 1,680.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,581.40 | -988.38 | -593.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 98.60 | 691.63 | 1,086.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 945.85 | 945.85 | 945.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.73 | 1.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 6.58 | 6.58 | 6.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.73 | 1.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.69 | 7.31 | 7.73 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.50% | 0.50% | 1.50% |
| Fair Value | $69.30 | $85.46 | $103.25 |
| Upside / Downside | -75.44% | -69.71% | -63.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,907.00 | 7,946.26 | 7,985.71 | 8,025.36 | 8,065.21 | 8,105.25 | 8,348.41 |
| Payout Ratio | 78.75% | 81.00% | 83.25% | 85.50% | 87.75% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6,227.00 | 6,436.66 | 6,648.25 | 6,861.78 | 7,077.27 | 7,294.73 | 7,722.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.50% | 0.50% | 1.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,841.18 | 5,899.89 | 5,958.60 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,475.04 | 5,585.65 | 5,697.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,128.11 | 5,284.29 | 5,443.61 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,799.83 | 4,995.72 | 5,197.55 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,489.62 | 4,719.82 | 4,959.36 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 77,939.63 | 81,935.86 | 86,094.35 |
| Equity Value (M) | 103,673.41 | 108,421.23 | 113,350.83 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 945.85 | 945.85 | 945.85 |
| Fair Value | $109.61 | $114.63 | $119.84 |
| Upside / Downside | -61.15% | -59.37% | -57.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |