Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HMS Bergbau AG (HMU.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$676.26 - $1,125.67$1,054.92
Multi-Stage$180.92 - $198.13$189.36
Blended Fair Value$622.14
Current Price$29.40
Upside2,016.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.920.770.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.46%1,822.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.13%3.54%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.143.211.93
Cash Retained (M)18.0118.0118.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.14-3.21-1.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8814.8016.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.843.263.54
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.843.263.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.534.955.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$676.26$1,054.92$1,125.67
Upside / Downside2,200.20%3,488.17%3,728.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.6927.3629.1431.0433.0535.2036.26
Payout Ratio29.89%41.91%53.93%65.95%77.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.6811.4715.7220.4725.7731.6833.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.7010.8010.90
Year 2 PV (M)13.6713.9314.20
Year 3 PV (M)16.6117.0917.57
Year 4 PV (M)19.5120.2621.03
Year 5 PV (M)22.3623.4524.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)738.39774.05811.08
Equity Value (M)821.24859.57899.34
Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
Fair Value$180.92$189.36$198.13
Upside / Downside515.37%544.10%573.90%

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