Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hwa Fong Rubber (Thailand) Public Company Limited (HFT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.59 - $5.42$4.45
Multi-Stage$4.67 - $5.13$4.90
Blended Fair Value$4.67
Current Price$4.20
Upside11.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.87%14.39%0.570.380.420.310.140.150.200.100.200.15
YoY Growth--51.49%-10.60%34.90%117.35%-3.33%-25.05%100.00%-50.00%33.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--15.51%9.06%7.95%3.79%2.10%6.64%6.75%2.65%3.97%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)267.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0433.7720.26
Cash Retained (M)267.97267.97267.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.04-33.77-20.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.93234.20247.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)663.76663.76663.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Fair Value$3.59$4.45$5.42
Upside / Downside-14.62%5.93%28.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.18273.92277.71281.55285.44289.39298.08
Payout Ratio0.82%18.65%36.49%54.33%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.2151.10101.34152.96205.99260.45275.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)46.2146.6747.13
Year 2 PV (M)82.8684.5286.19
Year 3 PV (M)113.09116.50119.98
Year 4 PV (M)137.71143.28149.02
Year 5 PV (M)157.45165.45173.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,564.492,694.802,830.34
Equity Value (M)3,101.813,251.223,406.44
Shares Outstanding (M)663.76663.76663.76
Fair Value$4.67$4.90$5.13
Upside / Downside11.26%16.62%22.19%

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