Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Heba Fastighets AB (publ) (HEBA-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.99 - $204.29$83.00
Multi-Stage$43.96 - $48.19$46.04
Blended Fair Value$64.52
Current Price$31.65
Upside103.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.11%5.66%0.530.460.810.660.610.560.460.410.380.33
YoY Growth--15.61%-43.75%23.08%8.33%9.09%22.22%12.50%6.67%15.38%8.33%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.36%2.86%0.87%1.06%1.34%1.28%1.49%1.37%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.9232.4519.47
Cash Retained (M)173.65173.65173.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.92-32.45-19.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)121.73141.20154.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.21162.21162.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.870.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.870.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$47.99$83.00$204.29
Upside / Downside51.62%162.26%545.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.60271.70284.35297.60311.47325.98335.76
Payout Ratio33.11%44.49%55.86%67.24%78.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.95120.87158.85200.12244.88293.38310.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)112.48113.57114.65
Year 2 PV (M)137.58140.25142.94
Year 3 PV (M)161.30166.02170.82
Year 4 PV (M)183.70190.89198.29
Year 5 PV (M)204.82214.89225.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,331.016,642.336,965.79
Equity Value (M)7,130.907,467.957,817.86
Shares Outstanding (M)162.21162.21162.21
Fair Value$43.96$46.04$48.19
Upside / Downside38.89%45.46%52.27%

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