Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Genova Property Group AB (publ) (GPG.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$502.20 - $1,094.37$1,025.59
Multi-Stage$163.04 - $178.58$170.67
Blended Fair Value$598.13
Current Price$38.60
Upside1,449.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.29%13.30%1.531.871.241.320.921.902.881.020.680.00
YoY Growth---18.19%50.80%-5.83%42.86%-51.61%-33.99%182.80%49.73%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.73%4.94%2.08%1.12%1.17%2.50%3.79%1.34%0.90%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.2031.3818.83
Cash Retained (M)202.10202.10202.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.20-31.38-18.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.90170.73183.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.6145.6145.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.333.744.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.333.744.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.404.815.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$502.20$1,025.59$1,094.37
Upside / Downside1,201.04%2,556.96%2,735.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251.00267.32284.69303.20322.90343.89354.21
Payout Ratio19.48%33.59%47.69%61.79%75.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.9089.78135.77187.35245.07309.50327.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.5784.3685.15
Year 2 PV (M)117.63119.87122.13
Year 3 PV (M)151.09155.43159.85
Year 4 PV (M)183.96191.04198.32
Year 5 PV (M)216.25226.70237.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,684.457,007.317,342.52
Equity Value (M)7,436.957,784.708,145.52
Shares Outstanding (M)45.6145.6145.61
Fair Value$163.04$170.67$178.58
Upside / Downside322.40%342.15%362.64%

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