Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Gerdau S.A. (GGBR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.29 - $294.55$276.04
Multi-Stage$45.68 - $50.00$47.80
Blended Fair Value$161.92
Current Price$16.61
Upside874.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.89%13.79%0.821.322.912.640.140.240.300.040.040.18
YoY Growth---38.27%-54.46%10.34%1,842.92%-43.24%-19.18%593.51%0.49%-76.00%-21.29%
Dividend Yield--5.05%7.13%13.80%10.78%0.57%2.99%2.32%0.34%0.49%3.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,001.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,355.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,646.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)600.24375.15225.09
Cash Retained (M)1,646.151,646.151,646.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-600.24-375.15-225.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,045.911,271.001,421.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,026.322,026.322,026.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.630.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.630.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.29$276.04$294.55
Upside / Downside786.78%1,561.90%1,673.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,001.203,196.273,404.033,625.293,860.944,111.904,235.26
Payout Ratio45.15%54.12%63.09%72.06%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,355.051,729.832,147.612,612.393,128.523,700.713,917.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,611.291,626.571,641.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,863.361,898.851,934.68
Year 3 PV (M)2,111.302,171.912,233.67
Year 4 PV (M)2,355.172,445.742,538.90
Year 5 PV (M)2,595.012,720.352,850.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,035.4685,997.8090,111.79
Equity Value (M)92,571.5996,861.22101,311.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,026.322,026.322,026.32
Fair Value$45.68$47.80$50.00
Upside / Downside175.04%187.79%201.01%

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